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Atlante FC vs Venados FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Atlante FC
Atlante FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Venados FC
Venados FC
8/17/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Atlante FC58%
×Draw24%
Venados FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlante FC
1.66
Venados FC
0.80

Atlante FC creates 107% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 129 away

creates per match

Atlante FC
1.73
Venados FC
0.98

allows per match

Atlante FC
0.62
Venados FC
1.58

finishing

Atlante FC+0.00on par
Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlante FC ↓

Venados FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlante FC or draw
82%
Atlante FC or Venados FC
76%
Draw or Venados FC
42%

Winning margin

Atlante FC wins by 2+
32%
Venados FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlante FC 1+ goals
81%
Atlante FC 2+ goals
49%
Atlante FC 3+ goals
23%
Venados FC 1+ goals
55%
Venados FC 2+ goals
19%
Venados FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlante FC (draw refunded)
76%
Venados FC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlante FC at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.62 · 147 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlante FC attack 1.73 + Venados FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.66

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Atlante FC defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Atlante FC scores more
58%
level
24%
Venados FC scores more
18%

Atlante FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atlante FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Atlante FC 1–0 Venados FC

Atlante FC beat Venados FC 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes in D.F..