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Atlante FC vs Tapachula — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Atlante FC
Atlante FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tapachula
Tapachula
2/11/2017Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 8Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo (Cancún)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Atlante FC60%
×Draw22%
Tapachula18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlante FC
1.92
Tapachula
0.94

Atlante FC creates 104% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 38 away

creates per match

Atlante FC
1.75
Tapachula
1.26

allows per match

Atlante FC
0.62
Tapachula
2.08

finishing

Atlante FC+0.00on par
Tapachula+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlante FC ↓

Tapachula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Atlante FC or draw
82%
Atlante FC or Tapachula
78%
Draw or Tapachula
40%

Winning margin

Atlante FC wins by 2+
36%
Tapachula wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlante FC 1+ goals
85%
Atlante FC 2+ goals
57%
Atlante FC 3+ goals
30%
Tapachula 1+ goals
61%
Tapachula 2+ goals
24%
Tapachula 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlante FC (draw refunded)
77%
Tapachula (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlante FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.62 · 151 matches

Tapachula away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlante FC attack 1.75 + Tapachula defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.92

Tapachula attack 1.26 + Atlante FC defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atlante FC scores more
60%
level
22%
Tapachula scores more
18%

Atlante FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atlante FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Atlante FC 2–2 Tapachula

Atlante FC and Tapachula drew 2-2 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 11, 2017.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo (Cancún).