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Atlante FC vs Raya2 — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Atlante FC
Atlante FCadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Raya2
Raya2
5/6/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlante FC54%
×Draw27%
Raya220%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlante FC
1.47
Raya2
0.78

Atlante FC creates 88% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 34 away

creates per match

Atlante FC
1.73
Raya2
0.94

allows per match

Atlante FC
0.62
Raya2
1.21

finishing

Atlante FC+0.00on par
Raya2+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlante FC ↓

Raya2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlante FC or draw
80%
Atlante FC or Raya2
73%
Draw or Raya2
46%

Winning margin

Atlante FC wins by 2+
27%
Raya2 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlante FC 1+ goals
77%
Atlante FC 2+ goals
43%
Atlante FC 3+ goals
18%
Raya2 1+ goals
54%
Raya2 2+ goals
18%
Raya2 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlante FC (draw refunded)
73%
Raya2 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlante FC at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.62 · 147 matches

Raya2 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlante FC attack 1.73 + Raya2 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.47

Raya2 attack 0.94 + Atlante FC defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atlante FC scores more
54%
level
27%
Raya2 scores more
20%

Atlante FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atlante FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Atlante FC 1–0 Raya2

Atlante FC beat Raya2 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes in D.F..