Atlante FC 3–1 Mineros de Zacatecas: Result & Stats

Atlante FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Mineros de Zacatecas

3/20/2024

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 11Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Atlante FC54%

×Draw25%

Mineros de Zacatecas22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlante FCExpected goals in this matchMineros de Zacatecas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.93

Atlante FC

1.63

Mineros de Zacatecas

0.93

Atlante FC creates 75% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 136 away

1.73

creates per match

1.24

0.62

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Atlante FC

1.73

Mineros de Zacatecas

1.24

allows per match

Atlante FC

0.62

Mineros de Zacatecas

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlante FC+0.00on par

Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlante FC ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlante FC or draw

78%

Atlante FC or Mineros de Zacatecas

75%

Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas

46%

Winning margin

Atlante FC wins by 2+

29%

Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atlante FC 1+ goals

80%

Atlante FC 2+ goals

48%

Atlante FC 3+ goals

22%

Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals

61%

Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals

24%

Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atlante FC (draw refunded)

71%

Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlante FC at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.62 · 147 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlante FC attack 1.73 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.24 + Atlante FC defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atlante FC scores more

54%

level

25%

Mineros de Zacatecas scores more

22%

Atlante FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atlante FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff