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Atlante FC vs Leones Negros UDG — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Atlante FC
Atlante FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
9/21/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Agustín Coruco Díaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Atlante FC55%
×Draw25%
Leones Negros UDG20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlante FC
1.57
Leones Negros UDG
0.83

Atlante FC creates 89% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 134 away

creates per match

Atlante FC
1.73
Leones Negros UDG
1.04

allows per match

Atlante FC
0.62
Leones Negros UDG
1.42

finishing

Atlante FC+0.00on par
Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlante FC ↓

Leones Negros UDG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlante FC or draw
80%
Atlante FC or Leones Negros UDG
75%
Draw or Leones Negros UDG
45%

Winning margin

Atlante FC wins by 2+
29%
Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlante FC 1+ goals
79%
Atlante FC 2+ goals
46%
Atlante FC 3+ goals
21%
Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
56%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
20%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlante FC (draw refunded)
73%
Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlante FC at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.62 · 147 matches

Leones Negros UDG away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlante FC attack 1.73 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.57

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.04 + Atlante FC defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atlante FC scores more
55%
level
25%
Leones Negros UDG scores more
20%

Atlante FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atlante FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlante FC vs Leones Negros UDG

Atlante FC beat Leones Negros UDG 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Agustín Coruco Díaz in Zacatepec.