Atlante FC 1–0 Durango: Result & Stats

Atlante FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Durango

4/23/2023

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 17Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlante FC62%

×Draw22%

Durango15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlante FCExpected goals in this matchDurango

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.76

Atlante FC

1.81

Durango

0.76

Atlante FC creates 138% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 19 away

1.73

creates per match

0.89

0.62

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Atlante FC

1.73

Durango

0.89

allows per match

Atlante FC

0.62

Durango

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlante FC+0.00on par

Durango+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlante FC ↓

Durango →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlante FC or draw

85%

Atlante FC or Durango

78%

Draw or Durango

38%

Winning margin

Atlante FC wins by 2+

36%

Durango wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Atlante FC 1+ goals

84%

Atlante FC 2+ goals

54%

Atlante FC 3+ goals

27%

Durango 1+ goals

53%

Durango 2+ goals

18%

Durango 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atlante FC (draw refunded)

80%

Durango (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlante FC at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.62 · 147 matches

Durango away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlante FC attack 1.73 + Durango defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.81

Durango attack 0.89 + Atlante FC defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atlante FC scores more

62%

level

22%

Durango scores more

15%

Atlante FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atlante FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff