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Atlante FC vs CA La Paz — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Atlante FC
Atlante FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CA La Paz
CA La Paz
4/17/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Atlante FC64%
×Draw21%
CA La Paz15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlante FC
2.00
CA La Paz
0.85

Atlante FC creates 135% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 64 away

creates per match

Atlante FC
1.73
CA La Paz
1.09

allows per match

Atlante FC
0.62
CA La Paz
2.28

finishing

Atlante FC+0.00on par
CA La Paz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlante FC ↓

CA La Paz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Atlante FC or draw
85%
Atlante FC or CA La Paz
79%
Draw or CA La Paz
36%

Winning margin

Atlante FC wins by 2+
39%
CA La Paz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlante FC 1+ goals
86%
Atlante FC 2+ goals
59%
Atlante FC 3+ goals
32%
CA La Paz 1+ goals
57%
CA La Paz 2+ goals
21%
CA La Paz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlante FC (draw refunded)
81%
CA La Paz (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlante FC at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.62 · 147 matches

CA La Paz away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.28 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlante FC attack 1.73 + CA La Paz defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.00

CA La Paz attack 1.09 + Atlante FC defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Atlante FC scores more
64%
level
21%
CA La Paz scores more
15%

Atlante FC at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Atlante FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Atlante FC 1–1 CA La Paz

Atlante FC and CA La Paz drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on April 17, 2026.