Atlanta 1–1 Gimnasia M.: Result & Stats

Atlanta

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Gimnasia M.

9/5/2021

Primera Nacional · Round 24Estadio Don León Kolbovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Atlanta40%

×Draw31%

Gimnasia M.29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtlantaExpected goals in this matchGimnasia M.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.87

Atlanta

1.08

Gimnasia M.

0.87

Atlanta creates 24% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 119 away

1.17

creates per match

0.93

0.81

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Atlanta

1.17

Gimnasia M.

0.93

allows per match

Atlanta

0.81

Gimnasia M.

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlanta+0.00on par

Gimnasia M.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta ↓

Gimnasia M. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Atlanta or draw

71%

Atlanta or Gimnasia M.

69%

Draw or Gimnasia M.

60%

Winning margin

Atlanta wins by 2+

16%

Gimnasia M. wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atlanta 1+ goals

66%

Atlanta 2+ goals

29%

Atlanta 3+ goals

10%

Gimnasia M. 1+ goals

58%

Gimnasia M. 2+ goals

22%

Gimnasia M. 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atlanta (draw refunded)

58%

Gimnasia M. (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.81 · 116 matches

Gimnasia M. away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.99 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta attack 1.17 + Gimnasia M. defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Gimnasia M. attack 0.93 + Atlanta defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlanta scores more

40%

level

31%

Gimnasia M. scores more

29%

Atlanta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff