Atlanta 0–1 Atletico Mitre: Result & Stats

Atlanta

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Mitre

4/3/2023

Primera Nacional · Group B - 8Estadio Don León Kolbovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Atlanta45%

×Draw31%

Atletico Mitre24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtlantaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Mitre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.76

Atlanta

1.17

Atletico Mitre

0.76

Atlanta creates 54% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 124 away

1.17

creates per match

0.71

0.81

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Atlanta

1.17

Atletico Mitre

0.71

allows per match

Atlanta

0.81

Atletico Mitre

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlanta+0.00on par

Atletico Mitre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta ↓

Atletico Mitre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Atlanta or draw

76%

Atlanta or Atletico Mitre

69%

Draw or Atletico Mitre

55%

Winning margin

Atlanta wins by 2+

20%

Atletico Mitre wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atlanta 1+ goals

69%

Atlanta 2+ goals

33%

Atlanta 3+ goals

11%

Atletico Mitre 1+ goals

53%

Atletico Mitre 2+ goals

18%

Atletico Mitre 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atlanta (draw refunded)

66%

Atletico Mitre (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.81 · 116 matches

Atletico Mitre away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.17 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta attack 1.17 + Atletico Mitre defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Atletico Mitre attack 0.71 + Atlanta defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlanta scores more

45%

level

31%

Atletico Mitre scores more

24%

Atlanta at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff