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Atlanta United II vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Atlanta United II
Atlanta United II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
8/16/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 42Fifth Third Bank Stadium (Kennesaw, Georgia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Atlanta United II44%
×Draw23%
Sporting KC II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlanta United II
1.83
Sporting KC II
1.57

Atlanta United II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 66 away

creates per match

Atlanta United II
1.48
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Atlanta United II
1.97
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Atlanta United II+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta United II ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Atlanta United II or draw
67%
Atlanta United II or Sporting KC II
77%
Draw or Sporting KC II
56%

Winning margin

Atlanta United II wins by 2+
24%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atlanta United II 1+ goals
84%
Atlanta United II 2+ goals
54%
Atlanta United II 3+ goals
28%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
79%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
46%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Atlanta United II (draw refunded)
57%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta United II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.97 · 75 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta United II attack 1.48 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Atlanta United II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlanta United II scores more
44%
level
23%
Sporting KC II scores more
33%

Atlanta United II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlanta United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlanta United II vs Sporting KC II

Atlanta United II beat Sporting KC II 2-1 in USL Championship on August 16, 2019.

The match was played at Fifth Third Bank Stadium (Kennesaw, Georgia).