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Atlanta United II vs Saint Louis — USL Championship 2018

Atlanta United II
Atlanta United II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
4/6/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 8Fifth Third Bank Stadium (Kennesaw, Georgia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Atlanta United II39%
×Draw25%
Saint Louis37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlanta United II
1.50
Saint Louis
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

creates per match

Atlanta United II
1.48
Saint Louis
0.93

allows per match

Atlanta United II
1.97
Saint Louis
1.51

finishing

Atlanta United II+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta United II ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Atlanta United II or draw
63%
Atlanta United II or Saint Louis
75%
Draw or Saint Louis
61%

Winning margin

Atlanta United II wins by 2+
19%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atlanta United II 1+ goals
78%
Atlanta United II 2+ goals
44%
Atlanta United II 3+ goals
19%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
77%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
42%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Atlanta United II (draw refunded)
51%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta United II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.97 · 75 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta United II attack 1.48 + Saint Louis defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Saint Louis attack 0.93 + Atlanta United II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlanta United II scores more
39%
level
25%
Saint Louis scores more
37%

Atlanta United II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlanta United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlanta United II 0 – 2 Saint Louis

Saint Louis beat Atlanta United II 2-0 in USL Championship on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Fifth Third Bank Stadium (Kennesaw, Georgia).