Atlanta United FC 1–3 Sporting Kansas City

Atlanta United FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Sporting Kansas City

G. Giakoumakis 20'

A. Vargas 85'

W. Agada 81' (pen), 73' (pen)

2/17/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Barry University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atlanta United FC47%

×Draw25%

Sporting Kansas City28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlanta United FCExpected goals in this matchSporting Kansas City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.21

Atlanta United FC

1.63

Sporting Kansas City

1.21

Atlanta United FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

1.25

1.17

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Atlanta United FC

2.00

Sporting Kansas City

1.25

allows per match

Atlanta United FC

1.17

Sporting Kansas City

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlanta United FC+0.00on par

Sporting Kansas City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta United FC ↓

Sporting Kansas City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Atlanta United FC or draw

72%

Atlanta United FC or Sporting Kansas City

75%

Draw or Sporting Kansas City

53%

Winning margin

Atlanta United FC wins by 2+

24%

Sporting Kansas City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atlanta United FC 1+ goals

80%

Atlanta United FC 2+ goals

48%

Atlanta United FC 3+ goals

22%

Sporting Kansas City 1+ goals

70%

Sporting Kansas City 2+ goals

34%

Sporting Kansas City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Atlanta United FC (draw refunded)

62%

Sporting Kansas City (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta United FC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Sporting Kansas City away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta United FC attack 2.00 + Sporting Kansas City defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sporting Kansas City attack 1.25 + Atlanta United FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atlanta United FC scores more

47%

level

25%

Sporting Kansas City scores more

28%

Atlanta United FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atlanta United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

G. Giakoumakis

73'

W. AgadaPenalty

81'

W. AgadaPenalty

85'

A. Vargas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff