Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlanta United FC vs Saint Louis — US Open Cup 2018

Atlanta United FC
Atlanta United FCadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
7/10/2019US Open CupUS Open Cup · Quarter-finalsFifth Third Bank Stadium (Kennesaw, Georgia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atlanta United FC64%
×Draw23%
Saint Louis13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlanta United FC
1.72
Saint Louis
0.62

Atlanta United FC creates 177% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Atlanta United FC
2.43
Saint Louis
0.67

allows per match

Atlanta United FC
0.57
Saint Louis
1.00

finishing

Atlanta United FC+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta United FC ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlanta United FC or draw
87%
Atlanta United FC or Saint Louis
77%
Draw or Saint Louis
36%

Winning margin

Atlanta United FC wins by 2+
37%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Atlanta United FC 1+ goals
82%
Atlanta United FC 2+ goals
51%
Atlanta United FC 3+ goals
25%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
46%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
13%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atlanta United FC (draw refunded)
83%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta United FC at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta United FC attack 2.43 + Saint Louis defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Saint Louis attack 0.67 + Atlanta United FC defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Atlanta United FC scores more
64%
level
23%
Saint Louis scores more
13%

Atlanta United FC at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Atlanta United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlanta United FC vs Saint Louis

Atlanta United FC beat Saint Louis 2-0 in US Open Cup on July 10, 2019.

The match was played at Fifth Third Bank Stadium (Kennesaw, Georgia).