Atlanta United FC vs Minnesota United FC — Major League Soccer 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 18+ matches
Atlanta United FC44%
Minnesota United FC31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atlanta United FC creates 23% more chances
Season form · 18 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atlanta United FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atlanta United FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 18 matches
Minnesota United FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.65 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atlanta United FC attack 1.43 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.54
Minnesota United FC attack 1.21 + Atlanta United FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Atlanta United FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Atlanta United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
New York Red BullsAtlanta United FC
Sporting Kansas City
Seattle Sounders
Los Angeles FC
FC Dallas
New York City FC
Portland Timbers
DC United
Columbus Crew
Philadelphia Union
Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles Galaxy
Vancouver Whitecaps
New England Revolution
Houston Dynamo
Toronto FC
Chicago Fire
Colorado Rapids
Orlando City SC
San Jose EarthquakesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Atlanta United FC host Minnesota United FC on Saturday, 4 May 2024 at 23:30. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2018/2019 season.
Major League Soccer: Atlanta United FC 1–2 Minnesota United FC
Minnesota United FC beat Atlanta United FC 2-1 in Major League Soccer on May 4, 2024.
Goals: K. Arriaga (54'), T. Oluwaseyi (60'), S. Lobjanidze (82').
Atlanta United FC controlled possession (69%) and registered 17 shots to 12.
The match was played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.