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Atlanta United FC vs Indy Eleven — US Open Cup 2018

Atlanta United FC
Atlanta United FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Indy Eleven
Indy Elevenadvanced
7/9/2024US Open CupUS Open Cup · Quarter-finalsFifth Third Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atlanta United FC66%
×Draw23%
Indy Eleven11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlanta United FC
1.72
Indy Eleven
0.53

Atlanta United FC creates 225% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Atlanta United FC
2.43
Indy Eleven
0.50

allows per match

Atlanta United FC
0.57
Indy Eleven
1.00

finishing

Atlanta United FC+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta United FC ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlanta United FC or draw
89%
Atlanta United FC or Indy Eleven
77%
Draw or Indy Eleven
34%

Winning margin

Atlanta United FC wins by 2+
39%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Atlanta United FC 1+ goals
82%
Atlanta United FC 2+ goals
51%
Atlanta United FC 3+ goals
25%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
41%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
10%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Atlanta United FC (draw refunded)
86%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta United FC at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta United FC attack 2.43 + Indy Eleven defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Indy Eleven attack 0.50 + Atlanta United FC defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Atlanta United FC scores more
66%
level
23%
Indy Eleven scores more
11%

Atlanta United FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Atlanta United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlanta United FC vs Indy Eleven

Indy Eleven beat Atlanta United FC 2-1 in US Open Cup on July 9, 2024.

The match was played at Fifth Third Bank Stadium in Kennesaw, Georgia.