Atlanta United FC 3–0 CD Motagua: Result & Stats

Atlanta United FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CD Motagua

2/26/2020

CONCACAF Champions League · 8th FinalsFifth Third Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atlanta United FC76%

×Draw17%

CD Motagua7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlanta United FCExpected goals in this matchCD Motagua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.50

Atlanta United FC

2.17

CD Motagua

0.50

Atlanta United FC creates 334% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.67

creates per match

0.50

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Atlanta United FC

1.67

CD Motagua

0.50

allows per match

Atlanta United FC

0.50

CD Motagua

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlanta United FC+0.00on par

CD Motagua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta United FC ↓

CD Motagua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atlanta United FC or draw

93%

Atlanta United FC or CD Motagua

83%

Draw or CD Motagua

24%

Winning margin

Atlanta United FC wins by 2+

51%

CD Motagua wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Atlanta United FC 1+ goals

89%

Atlanta United FC 2+ goals

64%

Atlanta United FC 3+ goals

36%

CD Motagua 1+ goals

39%

CD Motagua 2+ goals

9%

CD Motagua 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Atlanta United FC (draw refunded)

91%

CD Motagua (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta United FC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

CD Motagua away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta United FC attack 1.67 + CD Motagua defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

CD Motagua attack 0.50 + Atlanta United FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Atlanta United FC scores more

76%

level

17%

CD Motagua scores more

7%

Atlanta United FC at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Atlanta United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlanta United FC vs CD Motagua

Atlanta United FC beat CD Motagua 3-0 in CONCACAF Champions League on February 26, 2020.

The match was played at Fifth Third Bank Stadium in Kennesaw, Georgia.

Atlanta United FC vs CD Motagua — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlanta United FC vs CD Motagua