Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fontinhas vs Benfica Castelo Branco — League #459 2026

Fontinhas
Fontinhas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
Jordanes Medeiros 85' (pen)
S. Okitokandjo 15', 14'
9/15/2019League #459League #459 · Group C - 4Campo Municipal Dr. Durval Monteiro (Fontinhas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fontinhas35%
×Draw24%
Benfica Castelo Branco42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fontinhas
1.48
Benfica Castelo Branco
1.65

Benfica Castelo Branco creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Fontinhas
1.67
Benfica Castelo Branco
1.29

allows per match

Fontinhas
2.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
1.29

finishing

Fontinhas+0.00on par
Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontinhas ↓

Benfica Castelo Branco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fontinhas or draw
58%
Fontinhas or Benfica Castelo Branco
76%
Draw or Benfica Castelo Branco
65%

Winning margin

Fontinhas wins by 2+
16%
Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Fontinhas 1+ goals
77%
Fontinhas 2+ goals
43%
Fontinhas 3+ goals
19%
Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
81%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
49%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Fontinhas (draw refunded)
45%
Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontinhas at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Benfica Castelo Branco away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontinhas attack 1.67 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 1.29 + Fontinhas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fontinhas scores more
35%
level
24%
Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
42%

Benfica Castelo Branco at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Benfica Castelo Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
S. Okitokandjo
15'
S. Okitokandjo
32'
Mauro Aires← José Dias
46'
I. Coulibaly← Pedro Eira
47'
Gustavo Martins← Miguel Oliveira
60'
Clayton Leite← Gilson Varela
68'
Rafael Pinto← Francisco Caetano
73'
João Borges← João Dias
85'
Jordanes MedeirosPenalty

League #459: Fontinhas 1–2 Benfica Castelo Branco

Benfica Castelo Branco beat Fontinhas 2-1 in League #459 on September 15, 2019.

Goals: S. Okitokandjo (14', 15'), Jordanes Medeiros (85' pen).

The match was played at Campo Municipal Dr. Durval Monteiro (Fontinhas).