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Sogndal vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Sogndal
Sogndal
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tromso
Tromso
5/12/2016EliteserienEliteserien · Round 10Fosshaugane Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sogndal37%
×Draw33%
Tromso30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sogndal
0.95
Tromso
0.82

Sogndal creates 16% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 99 away

creates per match

Sogndal
0.25
Tromso
1.15

allows per match

Sogndal
0.50
Tromso
1.65

finishing

Sogndal+0.00on par
Tromso+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal ↓

Tromso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sogndal or draw
70%
Sogndal or Tromso
67%
Draw or Tromso
63%

Winning margin

Sogndal wins by 2+
14%
Tromso wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sogndal 1+ goals
61%
Sogndal 2+ goals
25%
Sogndal 3+ goals
7%
Tromso 1+ goals
56%
Tromso 2+ goals
20%
Tromso 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sogndal (draw refunded)
55%
Tromso (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal at home — creates 0.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.65 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal attack 0.25 + Tromso defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 0.95

Tromso attack 1.15 + Sogndal defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sogndal scores more
37%
level
33%
Tromso scores more
30%

Sogndal at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sogndal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
B. SarrSogndalSogndal · D
7.8

Match Events

20'
J. Johansen← C. Landu Landu
64'
L. Kjemhus← M. Otoo
64'
E. Birkelund← R. Bolseth
71'
K. Opseth← B. Sarr
72'
C. Johnsgard← L. Nilsen
87'
J. Gundersen← M. Andersen
90'
Gilbert Koomson

Possession

66%Sogndal

Shots

14Sogndal

Pass accuracy

57%Sogndal

Statistics

SogndalTromso
Overview
66%Possession34%
14Total Shots12
6Corners0
12Fouls7
Shots
14Total Shots12
3On Target3
5Off Target6
6Blocked3
8Inside Box4
6Outside Box8
Passing
66%Possession34%
578Total Passes287
461Accurate Passes171
80%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
4Offsides0

Eliteserien: Sogndal 0–0 Tromso

Sogndal and Tromso drew 0-0 in Eliteserien on May 12, 2016.

Sogndal controlled possession (66%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Fosshaugane Campus in Sogndal.