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Atlético Matogrossense vs Uirapuru — Matogrossense 2 2024

Atlético Matogrossense
Atlético Matogrossense
FT
1 – 7
HT: 0 – 2
Uirapuru
Uirapuru
5/17/2026Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atlético Matogrossense18%
×Draw16%
Uirapuru65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Matogrossense
1.55
Uirapuru
2.96

Uirapuru creates 91% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Atlético Matogrossense
1.50
Uirapuru
2.60

allows per match

Atlético Matogrossense
3.33
Uirapuru
1.60

finishing

Atlético Matogrossense+0.00on par
Uirapuru+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Matogrossense ↓

Uirapuru →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Atlético Matogrossense or draw
35%
Atlético Matogrossense or Uirapuru
84%
Draw or Uirapuru
82%

Winning margin

Atlético Matogrossense wins by 2+
8%
Uirapuru wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Atlético Matogrossense 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Matogrossense 2+ goals
46%
Atlético Matogrossense 3+ goals
20%
Uirapuru 1+ goals
95%
Uirapuru 2+ goals
79%
Uirapuru 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Atlético Matogrossense (draw refunded)
22%
Uirapuru (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Matogrossense at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

Uirapuru away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Matogrossense attack 1.50 + Uirapuru defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Uirapuru attack 2.60 + Atlético Matogrossense defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Atlético Matogrossense scores more
18%
level
16%
Uirapuru scores more
65%

Uirapuru at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Uirapuru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Matogrossense vs Uirapuru

Uirapuru beat Atlético Matogrossense 7-1 in Matogrossense 2 on May 17, 2026.