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Atlético Malveira vs Vitória de Sernache — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round 2022

Atlético Malveira
Atlético Malveira
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Vitória de Sernache
Vitória de Sernache
5/23/2026Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion RoundCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 5Estadio das Seixas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atlético Malveira6%
×Draw15%
Vitória de Sernache78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Malveira
0.50
Vitória de Sernache
2.33

Vitória de Sernache creates 366% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Atlético Malveira
0.33
Vitória de Sernache
2.33

allows per match

Atlético Malveira
2.33
Vitória de Sernache
0.67

finishing

Atlético Malveira+0.00on par
Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Malveira ↓

Vitória de Sernache →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–114%
0–216%
0–313%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Malveira or draw
22%
Atlético Malveira or Vitória de Sernache
85%
Draw or Vitória de Sernache
94%

Winning margin

Atlético Malveira wins by 2+
1%
Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Atlético Malveira 1+ goals
39%
Atlético Malveira 2+ goals
9%
Atlético Malveira 3+ goals
1%
Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals
90%
Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals
67%
Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Atlético Malveira (draw refunded)
7%
Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Malveira at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Vitória de Sernache away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Malveira attack 0.33 + Vitória de Sernache defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Vitória de Sernache attack 2.33 + Atlético Malveira defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Atlético Malveira scores more
6%
level
15%
Vitória de Sernache scores more
78%

Vitória de Sernache at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Vitória de Sernache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Malveira vs Vitória de Sernache

Vitória de Sernache beat Atlético Malveira 3-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round on May 23, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio das Seixas in Malveira.