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Atlético Bucaramanga W vs Internacional Palmira W — Liga Femenina 2020

Atlético Bucaramanga W
Atlético Bucaramanga W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Internacional Palmira W
Internacional Palmira W
5/15/2026Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Round 11Cancha Marte - UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W29%
×Draw29%
Internacional Palmira W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.97
Internacional Palmira W
1.26

Internacional Palmira W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 25 away

creates per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.55
Internacional Palmira W
0.76

allows per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W
1.76
Internacional Palmira W
1.40

finishing

Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par
Internacional Palmira W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Bucaramanga W ↓

Internacional Palmira W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Bucaramanga W or draw
57%
Atlético Bucaramanga W or Internacional Palmira W
71%
Draw or Internacional Palmira W
71%

Winning margin

Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+
10%
Internacional Palmira W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals
7%
Internacional Palmira W 1+ goals
72%
Internacional Palmira W 2+ goals
36%
Internacional Palmira W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)
40%
Internacional Palmira W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Bucaramanga W at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

Internacional Palmira W away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.55 + Internacional Palmira W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.97

Internacional Palmira W attack 0.76 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more
29%
level
29%
Internacional Palmira W scores more
43%

Internacional Palmira W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Internacional Palmira W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Atlético Bucaramanga W 0–1 Internacional Palmira W

Internacional Palmira W beat Atlético Bucaramanga W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on May 15, 2026.

The match was played at Cancha Marte - UMT in Bucaramanga.