Atl. Deportivo 5–0 San Nicolaas: Result & Stats

Atl. Deportivo

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

San Nicolaas

4/1/2026

Division di Honor · Relegation - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atl. Deportivo46%

×Draw20%

San Nicolaas34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atl. DeportivoExpected goals in this matchSan Nicolaas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.95

Atl. Deportivo

2.29

San Nicolaas

1.95

Atl. Deportivo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.17

creates per match

2.40

1.50

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Atl. Deportivo

2.17

San Nicolaas

2.40

allows per match

Atl. Deportivo

1.50

San Nicolaas

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atl. Deportivo+0.00on par

San Nicolaas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atl. Deportivo ↓

San Nicolaas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Atl. Deportivo or draw

66%

Atl. Deportivo or San Nicolaas

80%

Draw or San Nicolaas

54%

Winning margin

Atl. Deportivo wins by 2+

27%

San Nicolaas wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atl. Deportivo 1+ goals

90%

Atl. Deportivo 2+ goals

66%

Atl. Deportivo 3+ goals

40%

San Nicolaas 1+ goals

86%

San Nicolaas 2+ goals

58%

San Nicolaas 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Atl. Deportivo (draw refunded)

58%

San Nicolaas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atl. Deportivo at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

San Nicolaas away — creates 2.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atl. Deportivo attack 2.17 + San Nicolaas defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.29

San Nicolaas attack 2.40 + Atl. Deportivo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atl. Deportivo scores more

46%

level

20%

San Nicolaas scores more

34%

Atl. Deportivo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atl. Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff