Atl. Deportivo 4–2 Real Koyari: Result & Stats

Atl. Deportivo

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Real Koyari

4/14/2026

Division di Honor · Relegation - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atl. Deportivo83%

×Draw10%

Real Koyari7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atl. DeportivoExpected goals in this matchReal Koyari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.81

1.14

Atl. Deportivo

3.81

Real Koyari

1.14

Atl. Deportivo creates 234% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

2.17

creates per match

0.78

1.50

allows per match

5.44

creates per match

Atl. Deportivo

2.17

Real Koyari

0.78

allows per match

Atl. Deportivo

1.50

Real Koyari

5.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atl. Deportivo+0.00on par

Real Koyari+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atl. Deportivo ↓

Real Koyari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–07%

4–18%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Atl. Deportivo or draw

93%

Atl. Deportivo or Real Koyari

90%

Draw or Real Koyari

17%

Winning margin

Atl. Deportivo wins by 2+

66%

Real Koyari wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Atl. Deportivo 1+ goals

98%

Atl. Deportivo 2+ goals

88%

Atl. Deportivo 3+ goals

71%

Real Koyari 1+ goals

68%

Real Koyari 2+ goals

32%

Real Koyari 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atl. Deportivo (draw refunded)

92%

Real Koyari (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atl. Deportivo at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Real Koyari away — creates 0.78, concedes 5.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atl. Deportivo attack 2.17 + Real Koyari defence 5.44 → ÷2 → 3.81

Real Koyari attack 0.78 + Atl. Deportivo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Atl. Deportivo scores more

83%

level

10%

Real Koyari scores more

7%

Atl. Deportivo at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Atl. Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff