Atl. Deportivo 0–1 Caravel: Result & Stats

Atl. Deportivo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Caravel

5/4/2026

Division di Honor · Relegation round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atl. Deportivo56%

×Draw19%

Caravel24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atl. DeportivoExpected goals in this matchCaravel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.54

Atl. Deportivo

2.41

Caravel

1.54

Atl. Deportivo creates 56% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 28 away

2.17

creates per match

1.57

1.50

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

Atl. Deportivo

2.17

Caravel

1.57

allows per match

Atl. Deportivo

1.50

Caravel

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atl. Deportivo+0.00on par

Caravel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atl. Deportivo ↓

Caravel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Atl. Deportivo or draw

76%

Atl. Deportivo or Caravel

81%

Draw or Caravel

44%

Winning margin

Atl. Deportivo wins by 2+

36%

Caravel wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atl. Deportivo 1+ goals

91%

Atl. Deportivo 2+ goals

69%

Atl. Deportivo 3+ goals

43%

Caravel 1+ goals

79%

Caravel 2+ goals

45%

Caravel 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Atl. Deportivo (draw refunded)

70%

Caravel (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atl. Deportivo at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Caravel away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atl. Deportivo attack 2.17 + Caravel defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.41

Caravel attack 1.57 + Atl. Deportivo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atl. Deportivo scores more

56%

level

19%

Caravel scores more

24%

Atl. Deportivo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atl. Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff