Atl. Andahuaylas W 1–1 Alianza Lima W

Atl. Andahuaylas W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Alianza Lima W

5/20/2026

Liga Women · Apertura - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atl. Andahuaylas W51%

×Draw27%

Alianza Lima W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atl. Andahuaylas WExpected goals in this matchAlianza Lima W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.83

Atl. Andahuaylas W

1.42

Alianza Lima W

0.83

Atl. Andahuaylas W creates 71% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.83

creates per match

0.83

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Atl. Andahuaylas W

1.83

Alianza Lima W

0.83

allows per match

Atl. Andahuaylas W

0.83

Alianza Lima W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atl. Andahuaylas W+0.00on par

Alianza Lima W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atl. Andahuaylas W ↓

Alianza Lima W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atl. Andahuaylas W or draw

78%

Atl. Andahuaylas W or Alianza Lima W

73%

Draw or Alianza Lima W

49%

Winning margin

Atl. Andahuaylas W wins by 2+

25%

Alianza Lima W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atl. Andahuaylas W 1+ goals

76%

Atl. Andahuaylas W 2+ goals

41%

Atl. Andahuaylas W 3+ goals

17%

Alianza Lima W 1+ goals

56%

Alianza Lima W 2+ goals

20%

Alianza Lima W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atl. Andahuaylas W (draw refunded)

70%

Alianza Lima W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atl. Andahuaylas W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Alianza Lima W away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atl. Andahuaylas W attack 1.83 + Alianza Lima W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Alianza Lima W attack 0.83 + Atl. Andahuaylas W defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atl. Andahuaylas W scores more

51%

level

27%

Alianza Lima W scores more

22%

Atl. Andahuaylas W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atl. Andahuaylas W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff