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ATK vs Odisha — Indian Super League 2019

ATK
ATK
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Odisha
Odisha
2/8/2020Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 16Yuba Bharati Krirangan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ATK58%
×Draw21%
Odisha20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATK
2.00
Odisha
1.08

ATK creates 85% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 72 away

creates per match

ATK
2.18
Odisha
1.25

allows per match

ATK
0.91
Odisha
1.82

finishing

ATK+0.00on par
Odisha+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK ↓

Odisha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

ATK or draw
80%
ATK or Odisha
79%
Draw or Odisha
42%

Winning margin

ATK wins by 2+
35%
Odisha wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ATK 1+ goals
86%
ATK 2+ goals
59%
ATK 3+ goals
32%
Odisha 1+ goals
66%
Odisha 2+ goals
29%
Odisha 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ATK (draw refunded)
74%
Odisha (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Odisha away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.82 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK attack 2.18 + Odisha defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.00

Odisha attack 1.25 + ATK defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ATK scores more
58%
level
21%
Odisha scores more
20%

ATK at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ATK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ATK 3 – 1 Odisha

ATK beat Odisha 3-1 in Indian Super League on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Yuba Bharati Krirangan in Kolkata, West Bengal.