ATK 1–0 NorthEast United: Result & Stats

ATK

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

NorthEast United

1/27/2020

Indian Super League · Round 14Yuba Bharati Krirangan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ATK58%

×Draw22%

NorthEast United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ATKExpected goals in this matchNorthEast United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.06

ATK

1.97

NorthEast United

1.06

ATK creates 86% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 68 away

2.18

creates per match

1.22

0.91

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

ATK

2.18

NorthEast United

1.22

allows per match

ATK

0.91

NorthEast United

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ATK+0.00on par

NorthEast United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK ↓

NorthEast United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

ATK or draw

80%

ATK or NorthEast United

78%

Draw or NorthEast United

42%

Winning margin

ATK wins by 2+

35%

NorthEast United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

ATK 1+ goals

86%

ATK 2+ goals

58%

ATK 3+ goals

31%

NorthEast United 1+ goals

65%

NorthEast United 2+ goals

29%

NorthEast United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

ATK (draw refunded)

74%

NorthEast United (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

NorthEast United away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.76 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK attack 2.18 + NorthEast United defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.97

NorthEast United attack 1.22 + ATK defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ATK scores more

58%

level

22%

NorthEast United scores more

20%

ATK at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ATK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff