ATK 2–2 Mumbai City: Result & Stats

ATK

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Mumbai City

11/30/2019

Indian Super League · Round 6Yuba Bharati Krirangan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ATK45%

×Draw24%

Mumbai City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ATKExpected goals in this matchMumbai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.36

ATK

1.69

Mumbai City

1.36

ATK creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 74 away

2.18

creates per match

1.81

0.91

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

ATK

2.18

Mumbai City

1.81

allows per match

ATK

0.91

Mumbai City

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ATK+0.00on par

Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK ↓

Mumbai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

ATK or draw

69%

ATK or Mumbai City

76%

Draw or Mumbai City

55%

Winning margin

ATK wins by 2+

24%

Mumbai City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

ATK 1+ goals

82%

ATK 2+ goals

50%

ATK 3+ goals

24%

Mumbai City 1+ goals

74%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

39%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

ATK (draw refunded)

59%

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK attack 2.18 + Mumbai City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.69

Mumbai City attack 1.81 + ATK defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ATK scores more

45%

level

24%

Mumbai City scores more

31%

ATK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ATK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff