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ATK vs Goa — Indian Super League 2019

ATK
ATK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Goa
Goa
1/18/2020Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 13Yuba Bharati Krirangan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ATK50%
×Draw23%
Goa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATK
1.85
Goa
1.29

ATK creates 43% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 72 away

creates per match

ATK
2.18
Goa
1.67

allows per match

ATK
0.91
Goa
1.51

finishing

ATK+0.00on par
Goa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK ↓

Goa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

ATK or draw
73%
ATK or Goa
77%
Draw or Goa
50%

Winning margin

ATK wins by 2+
28%
Goa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ATK 1+ goals
84%
ATK 2+ goals
55%
ATK 3+ goals
28%
Goa 1+ goals
72%
Goa 2+ goals
37%
Goa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ATK (draw refunded)
65%
Goa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Goa away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.51 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK attack 2.18 + Goa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.85

Goa attack 1.67 + ATK defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ATK scores more
50%
level
23%
Goa scores more
27%

ATK at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ATK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ATK 2 – 0 Goa

ATK beat Goa 2-0 in Indian Super League on January 18, 2020.

The match was played at Yuba Bharati Krirangan in Kolkata, West Bengal.