ATK Mohun Bagan 0–1 Kerala Blasters: Result & Stats

ATK Mohun Bagan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kerala Blasters

12/27/2023

Indian Super League · Round 12Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

ATK Mohun Bagan53%

×Draw24%

Kerala Blasters23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ATK Mohun BaganExpected goals in this matchKerala Blasters

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.04

ATK Mohun Bagan

1.71

Kerala Blasters

1.04

ATK Mohun Bagan creates 64% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

1.82

creates per match

1.21

0.88

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

ATK Mohun Bagan

1.82

Kerala Blasters

1.21

allows per match

ATK Mohun Bagan

0.88

Kerala Blasters

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Kerala Blasters+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK Mohun Bagan ↓

Kerala Blasters →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

ATK Mohun Bagan or draw

77%

ATK Mohun Bagan or Kerala Blasters

76%

Draw or Kerala Blasters

47%

Winning margin

ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+

29%

Kerala Blasters wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals

82%

ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals

51%

ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals

24%

Kerala Blasters 1+ goals

65%

Kerala Blasters 2+ goals

28%

Kerala Blasters 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)

70%

Kerala Blasters (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK Mohun Bagan at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.88 · 68 matches

Kerala Blasters away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 1.82 + Kerala Blasters defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kerala Blasters attack 1.21 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ATK Mohun Bagan scores more

53%

level

24%

Kerala Blasters scores more

23%

ATK Mohun Bagan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ATK Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff