ATK Mohun Bagan 4–0 Bashundhara Kings

ATK Mohun Bagan

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bashundhara Kings

5/21/2022

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ATK Mohun Bagan58%

×Draw22%

Bashundhara Kings20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ATK Mohun BaganExpected goals in this matchBashundhara Kings

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.04

ATK Mohun Bagan

1.93

Bashundhara Kings

1.04

ATK Mohun Bagan creates 86% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

2.15

creates per match

0.86

1.23

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

ATK Mohun Bagan

2.15

Bashundhara Kings

0.86

allows per match

ATK Mohun Bagan

1.23

Bashundhara Kings

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Bashundhara Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK Mohun Bagan ↓

Bashundhara Kings →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

ATK Mohun Bagan or draw

80%

ATK Mohun Bagan or Bashundhara Kings

78%

Draw or Bashundhara Kings

42%

Winning margin

ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+

34%

Bashundhara Kings wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals

85%

ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals

57%

ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals

30%

Bashundhara Kings 1+ goals

65%

Bashundhara Kings 2+ goals

28%

Bashundhara Kings 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)

74%

Bashundhara Kings (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK Mohun Bagan at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Bashundhara Kings away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 2.15 + Bashundhara Kings defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.93

Bashundhara Kings attack 0.86 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ATK Mohun Bagan scores more

58%

level

22%

Bashundhara Kings scores more

20%

ATK Mohun Bagan at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ATK Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff