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Atios vs UD Ourense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atios
Atios
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
UD Ourense
UD Ourense
12/13/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Campo de futbol do Carballo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atios33%
×Draw29%
UD Ourense39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atios
1.07
UD Ourense
1.19

UD Ourense creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

creates per match

Atios
1.00
UD Ourense
0.97

allows per match

Atios
1.41
UD Ourense
1.14

finishing

Atios+0.00on par
UD Ourense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atios ↓

UD Ourense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atios or draw
61%
Atios or UD Ourense
71%
Draw or UD Ourense
67%

Winning margin

Atios wins by 2+
13%
UD Ourense wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atios 1+ goals
66%
Atios 2+ goals
29%
Atios 3+ goals
9%
UD Ourense 1+ goals
70%
UD Ourense 2+ goals
33%
UD Ourense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atios (draw refunded)
46%
UD Ourense (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atios at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

UD Ourense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atios attack 1.00 + UD Ourense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

UD Ourense attack 0.97 + Atios defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atios scores more
33%
level
29%
UD Ourense scores more
39%

UD Ourense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atios vs UD Ourense

Atios and UD Ourense drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de futbol do Carballo in O Porriño.