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Atios vs Pontellas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atios
Atios
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pontellas
Pontellas
10/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Campo de futbol do Carballo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atios49%
×Draw26%
Pontellas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atios
1.51
Pontellas
1.01

Atios creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

Atios
1.00
Pontellas
0.61

allows per match

Atios
1.41
Pontellas
2.03

finishing

Atios+0.00on par
Pontellas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atios ↓

Pontellas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atios or draw
75%
Atios or Pontellas
74%
Draw or Pontellas
51%

Winning margin

Atios wins by 2+
25%
Pontellas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atios 1+ goals
78%
Atios 2+ goals
44%
Atios 3+ goals
19%
Pontellas 1+ goals
64%
Pontellas 2+ goals
27%
Pontellas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atios (draw refunded)
66%
Pontellas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atios at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Pontellas away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atios attack 1.00 + Pontellas defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.51

Pontellas attack 0.61 + Atios defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atios scores more
49%
level
26%
Pontellas scores more
25%

Atios at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Atios 2–0 Pontellas

Atios beat Pontellas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de futbol do Carballo in O Porriño.