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Atios vs Arzúa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atios
Atios
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arzúa
Arzúa
4/11/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 2Campo de futbol do Carballo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atios42%
×Draw27%
Arzúa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atios
1.36
Arzúa
1.14

Atios creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

creates per match

Atios
1.00
Arzúa
0.86

allows per match

Atios
1.41
Arzúa
1.73

finishing

Atios+0.00on par
Arzúa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atios ↓

Arzúa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atios or draw
69%
Atios or Arzúa
73%
Draw or Arzúa
58%

Winning margin

Atios wins by 2+
19%
Arzúa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atios 1+ goals
74%
Atios 2+ goals
39%
Atios 3+ goals
16%
Arzúa 1+ goals
68%
Arzúa 2+ goals
32%
Arzúa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atios (draw refunded)
57%
Arzúa (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atios at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Arzúa away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atios attack 1.00 + Arzúa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Arzúa attack 0.86 + Atios defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atios scores more
42%
level
27%
Arzúa scores more
31%

Atios at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Atios 1–0 Arzúa

Atios beat Arzúa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de futbol do Carballo in O Porriño.