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Atios vs Alondras — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atios
Atios
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Alondras
Alondras
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Campo de futbol do Carballo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atios33%
×Draw27%
Alondras39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atios
1.15
Alondras
1.28

Alondras creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Atios
1.00
Alondras
1.15

allows per match

Atios
1.41
Alondras
1.30

finishing

Atios+0.00on par
Alondras+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atios ↓

Alondras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atios or draw
61%
Atios or Alondras
73%
Draw or Alondras
67%

Winning margin

Atios wins by 2+
14%
Alondras wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Atios 1+ goals
68%
Atios 2+ goals
32%
Atios 3+ goals
11%
Alondras 1+ goals
72%
Alondras 2+ goals
37%
Alondras 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atios (draw refunded)
46%
Alondras (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atios at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Alondras away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atios attack 1.00 + Alondras defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Alondras attack 1.15 + Atios defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atios scores more
33%
level
27%
Alondras scores more
39%

Alondras at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alondras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atios vs Alondras

Alondras beat Atios 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de futbol do Carballo in O Porriño.