Athlone Town 1–1 Kerry: Result & Stats

Athlone Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kerry

3/8/2024

First Division · Round 4Athlone Town Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Athlone Town46%

×Draw24%

Kerry30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athlone TownExpected goals in this matchKerry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.32

Athlone Town

1.70

Kerry

1.32

Athlone Town creates 29% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 66 away

1.35

creates per match

0.91

1.73

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Athlone Town

1.35

Kerry

0.91

allows per match

Athlone Town

1.73

Kerry

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athlone Town+0.00on par

Kerry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athlone Town ↓

Kerry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Athlone Town or draw

70%

Athlone Town or Kerry

76%

Draw or Kerry

54%

Winning margin

Athlone Town wins by 2+

24%

Kerry wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Athlone Town 1+ goals

82%

Athlone Town 2+ goals

51%

Athlone Town 3+ goals

24%

Kerry 1+ goals

73%

Kerry 2+ goals

38%

Kerry 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Athlone Town (draw refunded)

61%

Kerry (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athlone Town at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.73 · 120 matches

Kerry away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athlone Town attack 1.35 + Kerry defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.70

Kerry attack 0.91 + Athlone Town defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Athlone Town scores more

46%

level

24%

Kerry scores more

30%

Athlone Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Athlone Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff