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Athlone Town vs Cobh Ramblers — First Division 2019

Athlone Town
Athlone Town
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Cobh Ramblers
Cobh Ramblers
8/29/2025First DivisionFirst Division · Round 29Lissywoollen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Athlone Town39%
×Draw24%
Cobh Ramblers37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athlone Town
1.53
Cobh Ramblers
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Athlone Town
1.35
Cobh Ramblers
1.23

allows per match

Athlone Town
1.73
Cobh Ramblers
1.71

finishing

Athlone Town+0.00on par
Cobh Ramblers+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athlone Town ↓

Cobh Ramblers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Athlone Town or draw
63%
Athlone Town or Cobh Ramblers
76%
Draw or Cobh Ramblers
61%

Winning margin

Athlone Town wins by 2+
19%
Cobh Ramblers wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Athlone Town 1+ goals
78%
Athlone Town 2+ goals
45%
Athlone Town 3+ goals
20%
Cobh Ramblers 1+ goals
77%
Cobh Ramblers 2+ goals
43%
Cobh Ramblers 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Athlone Town (draw refunded)
51%
Cobh Ramblers (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athlone Town at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.73 · 120 matches

Cobh Ramblers away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.71 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athlone Town attack 1.35 + Cobh Ramblers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Cobh Ramblers attack 1.23 + Athlone Town defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Athlone Town scores more
39%
level
24%
Cobh Ramblers scores more
37%

Athlone Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Athlone Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Athlone Town 0–3 Cobh Ramblers

Cobh Ramblers beat Athlone Town 3-0 in First Division on August 29, 2025.

The match was played at Lissywoollen in Athlone.