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Athletico PR U20 vs Parana S.T.C. U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Athletico PR U20
Athletico PR U20
FT
3 – 2
Parana S.T.C. U20
Parana S.T.C. U20
5/4/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 10CT do Caju- Centro de Treinamentos Alfredo Gottardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Athletico PR U2072%
×Draw15%
Parana S.T.C. U2012%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletico PR U20
2.81
Parana S.T.C. U20
1.09

Athletico PR U20 creates 158% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 6 away

creates per match

Athletico PR U20
3.12
Parana S.T.C. U20
1.50

allows per match

Athletico PR U20
0.69
Parana S.T.C. U20
2.50

finishing

Athletico PR U20+0.00on par
Parana S.T.C. U20+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletico PR U20 ↓

Parana S.T.C. U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Athletico PR U20 or draw
88%
Athletico PR U20 or Parana S.T.C. U20
85%
Draw or Parana S.T.C. U20
28%

Winning margin

Athletico PR U20 wins by 2+
52%
Parana S.T.C. U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Athletico PR U20 1+ goals
94%
Athletico PR U20 2+ goals
76%
Athletico PR U20 3+ goals
52%
Parana S.T.C. U20 1+ goals
66%
Parana S.T.C. U20 2+ goals
30%
Parana S.T.C. U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Athletico PR U20 (draw refunded)
85%
Parana S.T.C. U20 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletico PR U20 at home — creates 3.12, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

Parana S.T.C. U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletico PR U20 attack 3.12 + Parana S.T.C. U20 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.81

Parana S.T.C. U20 attack 1.50 + Athletico PR U20 defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Athletico PR U20 scores more
72%
level
15%
Parana S.T.C. U20 scores more
12%

Athletico PR U20 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Athletico PR U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Athletico PR U20 3 – 2 Parana S.T.C. U20

Athletico PR U20 beat Parana S.T.C. U20 3-2 in Paranaense U20 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at CT do Caju- Centro de Treinamentos Alfredo Gottardi in Curitiba, Paraná.