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Athletico PR U20 vs Arapongas U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Athletico PR U20
Athletico PR U20
FT
7 – 0
Arapongas U20
Arapongas U20
4/27/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 9CT do Caju- Centro de Treinamentos Alfredo Gottardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Athletico PR U2095%
×Draw4%
Arapongas U201%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletico PR U20
4.31
Arapongas U20
0.43

Athletico PR U20 creates 902% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 6 away

creates per match

Athletico PR U20
3.12
Arapongas U20
0.17

allows per match

Athletico PR U20
0.69
Arapongas U20
5.50

finishing

Athletico PR U20+0.00on par
Arapongas U20+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletico PR U20 ↓

Arapongas U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–12%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–015%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (15%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Athletico PR U20 or draw
99%
Athletico PR U20 or Arapongas U20
96%
Draw or Arapongas U20
5%

Winning margin

Athletico PR U20 wins by 2+
85%
Arapongas U20 wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Athletico PR U20 1+ goals
98%
Athletico PR U20 2+ goals
92%
Athletico PR U20 3+ goals
77%
Arapongas U20 1+ goals
35%
Arapongas U20 2+ goals
7%
Arapongas U20 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Athletico PR U20 (draw refunded)
99%
Arapongas U20 (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletico PR U20 at home — creates 3.12, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

Arapongas U20 away — creates 0.17, concedes 5.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletico PR U20 attack 3.12 + Arapongas U20 defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 4.31

Arapongas U20 attack 0.17 + Athletico PR U20 defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Athletico PR U20 scores more
95%
level
4%
Arapongas U20 scores more
1%

Athletico PR U20 at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Athletico PR U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Athletico PR U20 vs Arapongas U20

Athletico PR U20 beat Arapongas U20 7-0 in Paranaense U20 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at CT do Caju- Centro de Treinamentos Alfredo Gottardi in Curitiba, Paraná.