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Athletico PR U17 vs Monte Roraima U17 — Copa do Brasil U17 2025

Athletico PR U17
Athletico PR U17advanced
FT
4 – 0
Monte Roraima U17
Monte Roraima U17
5/5/2026Copa do Brasil U17Copa do Brasil U17 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Athletico PR U1774%
×Draw15%
Monte Roraima U1711%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletico PR U17
2.77
Monte Roraima U17
1.00

Athletico PR U17 creates 177% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Athletico PR U17
2.80
Monte Roraima U17
1.00

allows per match

Athletico PR U17
1.00
Monte Roraima U17
2.75

finishing

Athletico PR U17+0.00on par
Monte Roraima U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletico PR U17 ↓

Monte Roraima U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Athletico PR U17 or draw
89%
Athletico PR U17 or Monte Roraima U17
85%
Draw or Monte Roraima U17
26%

Winning margin

Athletico PR U17 wins by 2+
53%
Monte Roraima U17 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Athletico PR U17 1+ goals
94%
Athletico PR U17 2+ goals
76%
Athletico PR U17 3+ goals
51%
Monte Roraima U17 1+ goals
63%
Monte Roraima U17 2+ goals
26%
Monte Roraima U17 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Athletico PR U17 (draw refunded)
87%
Monte Roraima U17 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletico PR U17 at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Monte Roraima U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletico PR U17 attack 2.80 + Monte Roraima U17 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.77

Monte Roraima U17 attack 1.00 + Athletico PR U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Athletico PR U17 scores more
74%
level
15%
Monte Roraima U17 scores more
11%

Athletico PR U17 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Athletico PR U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Brasil U17: Athletico PR U17 4–0 Monte Roraima U17

Athletico PR U17 beat Monte Roraima U17 4-0 in Copa do Brasil U17 on May 5, 2026.