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Athletico PR U17 vs Gremio U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Athletico PR U17
Athletico PR U17
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gremio U17
Gremio U17
G. Henrique Rodrigues Afonso 90'
J. Vitor 85'
Bruninho 50'
D. Alves 13'
B. G. Joao Pedro 9'
8/20/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 15CT do Caju- Centro de Treinamentos Alfredo Gottardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Athletico PR U1766%
×Draw17%
Gremio U1717%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletico PR U17
2.71
Gremio U17
1.35

Athletico PR U17 creates 101% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

creates per match

Athletico PR U17
2.95
Gremio U17
1.32

allows per match

Athletico PR U17
1.38
Gremio U17
2.47

finishing

Athletico PR U17+0.00on par
Gremio U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 77Under: 2377%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 69No: 3169%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletico PR U17 ↓

Gremio U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Athletico PR U17 or draw
83%
Athletico PR U17 or Gremio U17
83%
Draw or Gremio U17
34%

Winning margin

Athletico PR U17 wins by 2+
45%
Gremio U17 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Athletico PR U17 1+ goals
93%
Athletico PR U17 2+ goals
75%
Athletico PR U17 3+ goals
50%
Gremio U17 1+ goals
74%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
39%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Athletico PR U17 (draw refunded)
79%
Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletico PR U17 at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

Gremio U17 away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletico PR U17 attack 2.95 + Gremio U17 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.71

Gremio U17 attack 1.32 + Athletico PR U17 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Athletico PR U17 scores more
66%
level
17%
Gremio U17 scores more
17%

Athletico PR U17 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Athletico PR U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
B. G. Joao Pedro
13'
D. Alves
50'
Bruninho
85'
J. Vitor
90'
G. Henrique Rodrigues Afonso

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Athletico PR U17 4 – 1 Gremio U17

Athletico PR U17 beat Gremio U17 4-1 in Brasileiro U17 on August 20, 2025.

Goals: B. G. Joao Pedro (9'), D. Alves (13'), Bruninho (50'), J. Vitor (85'), G. Henrique Rodrigues Afonso (90').

The match was played at CT do Caju- Centro de Treinamentos Alfredo Gottardi in Curitiba, Paraná.