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Athletico PR U17 vs Fluminense U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Athletico PR U17
Athletico PR U17advanced
Pens
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Fluminense U17
Fluminense U17
B. Lima 90'
G. Henrique Rodrigues Afonso 89'
Bruninho 24'
L. Miguel 77', 67'
W. Lopes 36'
9/30/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Athletico PR U1755%
×Draw20%
Fluminense U1725%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletico PR U17
2.23
Fluminense U17
1.44

Athletico PR U17 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

Athletico PR U17
2.95
Fluminense U17
1.50

allows per match

Athletico PR U17
1.38
Fluminense U17
1.50

finishing

Athletico PR U17+0.00on par
Fluminense U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 71Under: 2971%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletico PR U17 ↓

Fluminense U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Athletico PR U17 or draw
75%
Athletico PR U17 or Fluminense U17
80%
Draw or Fluminense U17
45%

Winning margin

Athletico PR U17 wins by 2+
34%
Fluminense U17 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Athletico PR U17 1+ goals
89%
Athletico PR U17 2+ goals
65%
Athletico PR U17 3+ goals
38%
Fluminense U17 1+ goals
76%
Fluminense U17 2+ goals
42%
Fluminense U17 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Athletico PR U17 (draw refunded)
69%
Fluminense U17 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletico PR U17 at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

Fluminense U17 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletico PR U17 attack 2.95 + Fluminense U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.23

Fluminense U17 attack 1.50 + Athletico PR U17 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Athletico PR U17 scores more
55%
level
20%
Fluminense U17 scores more
25%

Athletico PR U17 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Athletico PR U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Bruninho
36'
W. Lopes
67'
L. Miguel
77'
L. Miguel
89'
G. Henrique Rodrigues Afonso
90'
B. Lima

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Athletico PR U17 3–3 Fluminense U17

Athletico PR U17 and Fluminense U17 drew 3-3 in Brasileiro U17 on September 30, 2025.

Goals: Bruninho (24'), W. Lopes (36'), L. Miguel (67', 77'), G. Henrique Rodrigues Afonso (89'), B. Lima (90').