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Athletico PR U17 vs Cruzeiro U17 — Copa do Brasil U17 2025

Athletico PR U17
Athletico PR U17
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cruzeiro U17
Cruzeiro U17
5/13/2026Copa do Brasil U17Copa do Brasil U17 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Athletico PR U1730%
×Draw22%
Cruzeiro U1748%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletico PR U17
1.56
Cruzeiro U17
2.00

Cruzeiro U17 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Athletico PR U17
2.80
Cruzeiro U17
3.00

allows per match

Athletico PR U17
1.00
Cruzeiro U17
0.33

finishing

Athletico PR U17+0.00on par
Cruzeiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletico PR U17 ↓

Cruzeiro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Athletico PR U17 or draw
52%
Athletico PR U17 or Cruzeiro U17
78%
Draw or Cruzeiro U17
70%

Winning margin

Athletico PR U17 wins by 2+
14%
Cruzeiro U17 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Athletico PR U17 1+ goals
79%
Athletico PR U17 2+ goals
46%
Athletico PR U17 3+ goals
21%
Cruzeiro U17 1+ goals
86%
Cruzeiro U17 2+ goals
59%
Cruzeiro U17 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Athletico PR U17 (draw refunded)
39%
Cruzeiro U17 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletico PR U17 at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Cruzeiro U17 away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletico PR U17 attack 2.80 + Cruzeiro U17 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cruzeiro U17 attack 3.00 + Athletico PR U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Athletico PR U17 scores more
30%
level
22%
Cruzeiro U17 scores more
48%

Cruzeiro U17 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cruzeiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Brasil U17: Athletico PR U17 1–1 Cruzeiro U17

Athletico PR U17 and Cruzeiro U17 drew 1-1 in Copa do Brasil U17 on May 13, 2026.