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Athletico PR U17 vs Corinthians U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Athletico PR U17
Athletico PR U17
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Corinthians U17
Corinthians U17
Bruninho 44'
D. Alves 10'
Kayque 90'
Guilherme Arsilla 45' (pen)
7/22/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 11CT do Caju- Centro de Treinamentos Alfredo Gottardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Athletico PR U1754%
×Draw20%
Corinthians U1726%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletico PR U17
2.23
Corinthians U17
1.50

Athletico PR U17 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

Athletico PR U17
2.95
Corinthians U17
1.61

allows per match

Athletico PR U17
1.38
Corinthians U17
1.50

finishing

Athletico PR U17+0.00on par
Corinthians U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 69No: 3169%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletico PR U17 ↓

Corinthians U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Athletico PR U17 or draw
74%
Athletico PR U17 or Corinthians U17
80%
Draw or Corinthians U17
46%

Winning margin

Athletico PR U17 wins by 2+
33%
Corinthians U17 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Athletico PR U17 1+ goals
89%
Athletico PR U17 2+ goals
65%
Athletico PR U17 3+ goals
38%
Corinthians U17 1+ goals
78%
Corinthians U17 2+ goals
44%
Corinthians U17 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Athletico PR U17 (draw refunded)
68%
Corinthians U17 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletico PR U17 at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

Corinthians U17 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletico PR U17 attack 2.95 + Corinthians U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.23

Corinthians U17 attack 1.61 + Athletico PR U17 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Athletico PR U17 scores more
54%
level
20%
Corinthians U17 scores more
26%

Athletico PR U17 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Athletico PR U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
D. Alves
44'
Bruninho
45'
Guilherme ArsillaPenalty
90'
Kayque

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Athletico PR U17 2–2 Corinthians U17

Athletico PR U17 and Corinthians U17 drew 2-2 in Brasileiro U17 on July 22, 2025.

Goals: D. Alves (10'), Bruninho (44'), Guilherme Arsilla (45' pen), Kayque (90').

The match was played at CT do Caju- Centro de Treinamentos Alfredo Gottardi in Curitiba, Paraná.