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Athletico PR U17 vs Atletico GO U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Athletico PR U17
Athletico PR U17
FT
5 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico GO U17
Atletico GO U17
D. Alves 85', 75' (pen)
Rhichey 79'
L. Bernardi 69'
B. Orlandi Varella 52'
Nathan 26'
7/9/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 9CT do Caju- Centro de Treinamentos Alfredo Gottardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Athletico PR U1781%
×Draw12%
Atletico GO U178%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletico PR U17
3.33
Atletico GO U17
0.99

Athletico PR U17 creates 236% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Athletico PR U17
2.95
Atletico GO U17
0.60

allows per match

Athletico PR U17
1.38
Atletico GO U17
3.70

finishing

Athletico PR U17+0.00on par
Atletico GO U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 79Under: 2179%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletico PR U17 ↓

Atletico GO U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Athletico PR U17 or draw
92%
Athletico PR U17 or Atletico GO U17
88%
Draw or Atletico GO U17
19%

Winning margin

Athletico PR U17 wins by 2+
63%
Atletico GO U17 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Athletico PR U17 1+ goals
96%
Athletico PR U17 2+ goals
84%
Athletico PR U17 3+ goals
63%
Atletico GO U17 1+ goals
63%
Atletico GO U17 2+ goals
26%
Atletico GO U17 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Athletico PR U17 (draw refunded)
91%
Atletico GO U17 (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletico PR U17 at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

Atletico GO U17 away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletico PR U17 attack 2.95 + Atletico GO U17 defence 3.70 → ÷2 → 3.33

Atletico GO U17 attack 0.60 + Athletico PR U17 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Athletico PR U17 scores more
81%
level
12%
Atletico GO U17 scores more
8%

Athletico PR U17 at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Athletico PR U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
Nathan
52'
B. Orlandi Varella
69'
L. Bernardi
75'
D. AlvesPenalty
79'
Rhichey
85'
D. Alves

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Athletico PR U17 5 – 1 Atletico GO U17

Athletico PR U17 beat Atletico GO U17 5-1 in Brasileiro U17 on July 9, 2025.

Goals: Nathan (26'), B. Orlandi Varella (52'), L. Bernardi (69'), D. Alves (75' pen, 85'), Rhichey (79').

The match was played at CT do Caju- Centro de Treinamentos Alfredo Gottardi in Curitiba, Paraná.