Athletico Paranaense W 1–2 Palmeiras W

Athletico Paranaense W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Palmeiras W

Thayslane 51'

Amanda Gutierres 89'

Sorriso 73'

6/12/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 15CT do Caju- Centro de Treinamentos Alfredo Gottardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Athletico Paranaense W19%

×Draw20%

Palmeiras W61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletico Paranaense WExpected goals in this matchPalmeiras W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

2.29

Athletico Paranaense W

1.22

Palmeiras W

2.29

Palmeiras W creates 88% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 60 away

1.29

creates per match

2.28

2.29

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Athletico Paranaense W

1.29

Palmeiras W

2.28

allows per match

Athletico Paranaense W

2.29

Palmeiras W

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletico Paranaense W+0.00on par

Palmeiras W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletico Paranaense W ↓

Palmeiras W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Athletico Paranaense W or draw

39%

Athletico Paranaense W or Palmeiras W

80%

Draw or Palmeiras W

81%

Winning margin

Athletico Paranaense W wins by 2+

8%

Palmeiras W wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Athletico Paranaense W 1+ goals

70%

Athletico Paranaense W 2+ goals

34%

Athletico Paranaense W 3+ goals

12%

Palmeiras W 1+ goals

90%

Palmeiras W 2+ goals

66%

Palmeiras W 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Athletico Paranaense W (draw refunded)

24%

Palmeiras W (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletico Paranaense W at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Palmeiras W away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletico Paranaense W attack 1.29 + Palmeiras W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.22

Palmeiras W attack 2.28 + Athletico Paranaense W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Athletico Paranaense W scores more

19%

level

20%

Palmeiras W scores more

61%

Palmeiras W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Palmeiras W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

Thayslane

59'

Laís Estevam← Dudinha

59'

R. Miño← Y. Rodríguez

70'

Tosti← Joyce

73'

Bárbara← Sâmia Pryscila

73'

Sorriso

76'

Dedê← Camila Pini

76'

Iasmyn Vitória← Thayslane

88'

Duda← Maiara Fraga

88'

H. Vergara← Ellen

89'

Amanda Gutierres

Athletico

Palmeiras

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Thayslane

▼

Fraga

Cardoso

Manager: Brenno

70'▲Tosti←▼Joyce

76'▲Dedê←▼Camila Pini

76'▲Iasmyn Vitória←▼Thayslane

88'▲Duda←▼Maiara Fraga

88'▲H. Vergara←▼Ellen

Athletico Paranaense W substitutes

TostiDedêVitóriaDudaVergaraGiovannaNatháliaVargasRenatinhaYasmin

Manager: Ricardo Belli

59'▲Laís Estevam←▼Dudinha

59'▲R. Miño←▼Y. Rodríguez

73'▲Bárbara←▼Sâmia Pryscila

Palmeiras W substitutes

EstevamMiñoBárbaraBobadillaBalmacedaMartínez