Athletic Club vs Vila Nova — Serie B 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 8+ matches
Athletic Club43%
Vila Nova28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Athletic Club creates 31% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Athletic Club ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Athletic Club at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.90 · 8 matches
Vila Nova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Athletic Club attack 1.22 + Vila Nova defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27
Vila Nova attack 1.03 + Athletic Club defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Athletic Club at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
Criciuma
Goias
Juventude
Operario-PR
Avai
Fortaleza ECVila Nova
Londrina
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
Atletico Goianiense
CRB
Novorizontino
Sport Recife
São BernardoAthletic Club
America Mineiro
Ceara
Nautico Recife
Ponte PretaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Athletic Club host Vila Nova on Wednesday, 7 May 2025 at 00:30. The match is part of the Serie B 2026/2027 season.
Serie B: Athletic Club 0–1 Vila Nova
Vila Nova beat Athletic Club 1-0 in Serie B on May 7, 2025.
Goals: Dodo (90').
Athletic Club controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 11.
The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Minas Gerais.