Athletic Club vs Valencia — La Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 31+ matches
Athletic Club49%
Valencia26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Athletic Club creates 48% more chances
Season form · 31 home / 36 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Athletic Club ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Athletic Club at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches
Valencia away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 36 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Athletic Club attack 1.42 + Valencia defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.55
Valencia attack 1.07 + Athletic Club defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.05
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Athletic Club at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsAthletic Club
Atletico Madrid
Osasuna
Alaves
Elche
Barcelona
Getafe
Levante
Malaga
Racing Santander
Celta Vigo
Deportivo La Coruna
Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano
Real Betis
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad
SevillaValencia
VillarrealIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Athletic Club host Valencia on Sunday, 21 August 2022 at 15:30. The match is part of the La Liga 2026/2027 season.
La Liga: Athletic Club 1–0 Valencia
Athletic Club beat Valencia 1-0 in La Liga on August 21, 2022.
Goals: Álex Berenguer (43').
Valencia controlled possession (63%) and registered 10 shots to 12.
The match was played at San Mamés Barria in Bilbao.