Athletic Club vs Qarabag — UEFA Champions League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Athletic Club35%
Qarabag39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 4 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Athletic Club ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Athletic Club at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches
Qarabag away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Athletic Club attack 1.25 + Qarabag defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31
Qarabag attack 1.26 + Athletic Club defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Qarabag at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
Arsenal
Bayern München
Liverpool
Tottenham
Barcelona
Chelsea
Sporting CP
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Inter
Paris Saint Germain
Newcastle
Juventus
Atletico Madrid
Atalanta
Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund
Olympiakos Piraeus
Club Brugge KV
Galatasaray
MonacoQarabag
Bodo/Glimt
Benfica
Marseille
Pafos
Union St. Gilloise
PSV EindhovenAthletic Club
Napoli
FC Copenhagen
Ajax
Eintracht Frankfurt
Slavia Praha
Villarreal
Kairat AlmatyIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Athletic Club host Qarabag on Wednesday, 22 October 2025 at 16:45. The match is part of the UEFA Champions League 2026/2027 season.
UEFA Champions League: Athletic Club 3–1 Qarabag
Athletic Club beat Qarabag 3-1 in UEFA Champions League on October 22, 2025.
Goals: Leandro Andrade (1'), G. Guruzeta (40', 88'), R. Navarro (70').
Athletic Club controlled possession (60%) and registered 21 shots to 9.
The match was played at San Mamés in Bilbao.