Athletic Club 1–0 Fortaleza EC: Result & Stats

Athletic Club

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fortaleza EC

Ian Luccas 55'

5/30/2026

Serie B · Round 11Estádio Joaquim Portugal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Athletic Club41%

×Draw28%

Fortaleza EC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic ClubExpected goals in this matchFortaleza EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.03

Athletic Club

1.25

Fortaleza EC

1.03

Athletic Club creates 21% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.18

creates per match

1.11

0.95

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Athletic Club

1.18

Fortaleza EC

1.11

allows per match

Athletic Club

0.95

Fortaleza EC

1.31

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

Athletic Club-0.10scores less

Fortaleza EC-0.55scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club ↓

Fortaleza EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Athletic Club or draw

70%

Athletic Club or Fortaleza EC

72%

Draw or Fortaleza EC

59%

Winning margin

Athletic Club wins by 2+

18%

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Athletic Club 1+ goals

71%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

36%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

13%

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

64%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

28%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

58%

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.95 · 12 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club attack 1.18 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fortaleza EC attack 1.11 + Athletic Club defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Athletic Club scores more

41%

level

28%

Fortaleza EC scores more

30%

Athletic Club at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Luan Polli

Athletic Club · G

8.2

Match Events

7'

Kauã Rocha

46'

Mailton← Rodriguinho

46'

Luiz Fernando← Kaua Rocha

55'

Ian Luccas

60'

Lucas Crispim← Vitinho

60'

T. Pochettino← Welliton

65'

Jota← D. Vera

65'

Bruninho← Max

72'

Lucca Prior← Rodrigo

81'

Ruan Assis← Ian Luccas

90'

Alexandre Pena← G. Cabezas

90'

Felipe Vieira← Zeca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AthleticFortaleza

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots14

0.82Expected Goals (xG)1.22

8Corners7

17Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots14

2On Target4

7Off Target7

3Blocked3

6Inside Box9

6Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

348Total Passes413

271Accurate Passes344

78%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-0.28Goals Prevented-0.28

Discipline

17Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0